Japan's electric power crisis

Paul Scalise of Tokyo University gave an interesting talk about Japan’s electric power problems at Oxford’s Nissan Institute on Friday. The point that stuck in my mind was that the biggest reason for Japan’s high electricity prices is “the costs of NIMBY” – a lengthy and expensive planning process, and substantial compensation to local residents when a new power station is built (not only nuclear – all kinds). As Martin Dusinberre noted the other day, the rewards for opening a new nuclear plant are so great that even after Fukushima, rural communities are actually campaigning to get one (Martin’s recent book Hard Times in the Hometown is a study of Kaminoseki in Yamaguchi Prefecture).

Paul argued that with no nuclear plants operating, Japan is now in serious danger of black-outs, further damaging its industrial competitiveness. (Black-outs would presumably be planned and pre-announced, but they’re still inconvenient.) The general public wants power to be cheap, 100% safe, and always available, but this is not realistic. Japanese media need to have an intelligent debate about the trade-offs between safety, price, environmental friendliness, and possible supply shortages. And given the long lead times involved in building new generation capacity, they need to get on with it. My guess is that nuclear plants will start being switched on before long. Even opponents like (Lower House Member) Taro Kono argue for phasing it out over time, not switching it all off immediately.